Thailand held its general election on May 14th. On July 13th — almost two months since the election — the first round of voting for prime minister unfolded inconclusively. Then, on July 19th, the scheduled second round did not happen at all, with Parliament voting that Pita Limjaroenrat could not be submitted for consideration twice.
It has been a remarkably drawn out process, only to reach the conclusion that most of us could have guessed a long time ago: Pita would not be allowed to become prime minister, and someone else will take the reins. Parliament voted to deny Pita a second shot at being re-nominated. It was only a formality that finalized what has long been certain.
As the legal scholar Dr. Bowornsak Uwanno has noted, this stands on dubious legal grounds at best. But the decision has been made; now, the real action will take place. Two further movements appear imminent. Even without Pita at the head, it appears more likely than not that any prime ministerial candidate with Move Forward support is doomed.
Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul said that he would not join with a Pheu Thai government that includes Move Forward. That most likely also means he would not vote for a Pheu Thai prime minister backed by Move Forward. Therefore, we can expect that Move Forward will eventually have to be ejected out of the coalition, while former Prayut coalition parties are brought into the fold.
It may not happen right away — but unless a massive surprise occurs, there seems to be no other solution to this parliamentary deadlock. The second movement to watch is who the next prime ministerial nominee will be. They cannot just nominate someone for a test vote to see whether they might be able to win over the Senate. There will be no second tries. With the stakes raised, anyone nominated now has to play to win — unless they are put forward just for show, in another episode of this strange but predictable parliamentary melodrama.
