Andersen highlights the critical nature of current debate, political maneuvering, and potential for violence as Kurds and Prime Minister Maliki push their agenda. The former to continue and extend the autonomy of Kurdistan, the latter to strengthen the central government. Control of current and future oil reserves is the key issue. Iraq's status as potentially the largest oil producing country, by far, in the world with only 10 percent of its possible oil bearing areas assessed to date, makes the question of control of oil the pound gorilla in the room.
Iraq's revenue will come from oil -- how oil is controlled through a mix of federal and regional power is central to the current debate over federal vs regional power.
If Kurdistan is successful in establishing a strong regional government under a relatively weak federal system with effective control of its oil reserves, it sets the stage for the Shi'a south to move in the same direction.
If that happens, Dr. Andersen recommends a compromise that one hopes will be considered -- regional control of oil with revenue turned over to the federal government for allocation, no strings attached, back to the regions based on population. This discussion is incredibly complicated and control of a significant portion of the future oil reserves of the world hangs in the balance.
Post a Comment. Many commentators have pointed out the seriousness of this issue, but still think that the sectarian conflict between Sunnis and Shiites is more important. Stansfield and Anderson believe that no other problem is as central to the future of Iraq.
